Monday, January 9, 2012

Drought in Texas


Morris Creedon-McVean 2011
After 5 years of drought and one year of record shattering drought and heat, this is how the soil looks. Not even the most drought tolerant weeds cannot grow here.  This is how  deserts start. Further drying and the surface crumbles and falls apart until it is small enough for the wind to carry it around.  All of the elite weather modelers (now well funded and staffed by the worlds most gifted reseachers from all fields have stated that there is virtually no chance of significant rain to break the drought (which would mean 25+ inches of rain in a month for most areas, including the heavily populated cities).  Few of Texas 254 counties have ever had even even half that amount in record breaking years.  The modelers hint that we may be at the beginning of a regular pattern of catastrophic droughts that strike the American Southwest region (AZ,NM,TX and western OK) on a 800-1200 year cycle for thousands of years.  Ominously the last episode was in 600-800 PCA.  In addition, current weather conditions are perfect for long term drought. There are now 25 million people in Texas, and almost the entire culture is behaving as if there is no real danger from the drought.  Many people are still watering their lawns and outside water use makes up a stunning 25% of our total usage.  Government recommendations are for modest restraint, like every other day hand watering only, but there is no enforcement and the reduction is insignificant. Considering the risk both theorhetical and what people can see with their own eyes, this level of conservation is ridiculous. The state is encouraging the denial by withholding one key piece of information: how much water is on hand NOW.  This is public information and they have no legal or ehtical right to withhold it, but as our lawless governments routinely do these days, they defy the Constitution and do whatever they want.  We know the daily usage rate, that is published, and dividing that into the available water we would have a very good estimate of when we will run out completely.  This deprives people of the knowledge that this drought is serious and plan their course of action.  There is logistically no way to import the 50 million gallons per day necessary to sustain life (@a 2 gallons per person per day), so millions will be forced to migrate.  Electrical production will be slashed and living through next summer with temperatures 10-15 degrees hotter without air conditioning.  For many, weakened by age or disease survival under those conditions  will not be possible.  So 10-15 million Texas will be forced to migrate on an urgent basis once the reality of the situation is revealed.  Those numbers on our interstates will turn them into parking lots and millions will die of dehydration and malnutrition.  They will run out  gas further adding to the traffic jam that run 800-1000 miles, which is the distance to regions that have the water to support this massive influx of people.  No agency, Federal, state or NGO (non government organization) has made any plans to help the people in this perilous mass migration, even though it has been obvious to any one who investigates that this scenario is highly probable.   These numbers are just my guesses, but they are about as good as anyone else's.  I'm not trying to be accurate, just emphasize the magnitude of the problem and the probable outcome.  The initial 10-15 million is just the beginning; of our current 25 million Texas can probably only support 5 million or much less if the long term (100+ year ) scenario unfolds.  It's going to unfold abruptly. The populous will be in denial, the furious at the government at their negligent failure to inform them of the severity of the problem and the timing of running out of water which they knew.  Then a frantic scramble by many to escape.  People filling their cars with a few keepsakes, as much water as possible, and leaving everything behind.  The biggest nightmare will occur if there are not enough volunteers to relieve the stress on the system and the Government has to decide (by lottery?) who must go.  The poor of course will be the most vulnerable, because the rich can pay any amount for an airplane ticket.  But I know Texans; I am one and we are tough proud people.  We are extremely independent and if a police officer came to the door with a warrant stating he and his family must vacate a home and property that has been in the family for 5 generations, he will (almost uniformly) will be "Over my dead body!" as he cocks his 5 shot pump action 12 gage shotgun.  Everyone is afraid of these ordinary weapons at close range.  The police will back up slowly, get in their cars and drive away.  Returning to his base he reports "Only 2 of 78 warrants were accepted, including my cousin. They we all (76) armed and ready to fight.  A few times I feared I would be shot in the back."
It will take months to serve those warrants due to limited personal, including officers who will refuse to serve them.  It will a dangerous job.  Maybe the government led by rick Perry's painful inability to remain blind to the audience, will not know what to do next, beyond making pretty graphs of the casualty figures.
I'm sure you have had enough.I'm starting a blog "www.BiologyBehaviorChaos.com.  It's finally set up and perhaps I will make my first post this evening.
 Mo