Monday, June 10, 2013

Austin Texas Will Run OUT of WATER SOON

Austin Texas Will Run Dry Soon
March 20, 2013
Revised March 28, 2013
Revised May 23, 2013
Revised June 4, 2013
Revised June 10, 2013

Morris Creedon-McVean   03-28-2013

The reason for this revision is due to evidence that "the rats are beginning to jump off of the sinking ship". This new information should add a substantial boost to the credibility of my basic argument.
First, Gov. Perry's budget proposal calling for tax cuts was defeated by a resounding 4:1 margin. Hardly what one would expect from four term Governor who has held an iron handed grip on Texas State policy for well over a decade.  As of today, he has set himself up for a fall of political grace unprecedented in the history of this county.

The Texas Tribune published the following article, making it clear that he is spreading his pathological lying to the rest of the county.  This sets him up for looking like a greater fool that he demonstrated in the live broadcast by FOX of the debate with Mitt Romney when he was in the running for the GOP candidate for President.  Romney, hardly a formidable opponent as he demonstrated repeatedly when he became the GOP candidate, cannot think on his feet, won the "debate" when during the second hour Perry became so rattled he could not complete a single sentence for the entire hour.  The FOX announcers had to resort to making fun of him for the painful or hilarious (depending on whether you were a Perry supporter or not) the entire second hour, in order to preserve some journalistic integrity.  That second hour instantly removed Perry from consideration, as Obama never gets rattled even under the greatest pressure.  This quality drives the GOP nuts, and they hate him even more because he is so competent. 

The bald face lies as reported in the following article include his omission of the extreme risk of drought in at least half of the state.  This failure of omission was pointed out by the Mayor of Chicago in the article.  Also his bragging about "a fair legal system" is laughable.  The State of Texas does not have a department of Justice, but a Department of Punishment.  Unless you are wealthy, if you are charged with a crime you will go to prison.  Texas not only has the highest incarceration rate in the United States, but it is the highest of any country in the world.  Higher than countries with totally corrupt despots with secret police.  The attitude about "justice" can be summed up in the following action by the District Attorney for Travis county.  There are 30 men who have been in prison for 10 to 30 years after being convicted for sexual assault.  Recent more sophisticated DNA analysis proved without a shadow of doubt that none of the 30 men were the perps.  When the DA was asked why these men were still in jail given the conclusive evidence that were innocent, the DA replied: "We don't have the money to retry them."  Retry them???  Since there is no moral or ethical defense to this position, the 30 men, all black, should just be released from prison with an apology from the State and a check for all the lost wages incurred while falsely imprisoned.  In Texas you are guilty until proven innocent.  The majority of these convictions were made after it was well established by multiple studies that victims of assault are totally unreliable witnesses due to the plasticity of human memory.  During the two year wait for the trail each time the victim thinks of the horror of the event, the memories change.  It is very much like a computer hard drive.  Each time you use an application, when it is rewritten back to the hard drive a few errors are made, until over time the application stops working properly, and has to have a "clean"copy reinstalled.  Study after study showed that victims of assault could do no better than random chance in identifying the perp.  This information was withheld from the juries and most of the convictions were made solely on the basis of the victim's testimony identifying the perp.  One man, a model citizen with a promising career, had collaborative witnesses by other upstanding citizens that he was not even in the State at the time of the alleged assault.  He was convicted solely on the basis of the victim's testimony.  He remains in prison.  Several of the 30 falsely imprisoned have had the victims publicly recant their testimony, stating that their identification of the perp was an error. Summary, you cannot prove your innocence in this State, especially if you are black.

This high profile series of lies about coming to Texas is going to set up Perry for a huge fall, when Travis County and the City of Austin run out of water in the near future.  Anarchy will ensue, many lives will be lost, and the showpiece city of Texas will destroyed, as the city will be abandoned by at least 80% of the population.  Who wants to live in place with no electrical power and no water?  Not only will Perry look like the biggest fool and liar in the country, but trickle down effect of the destruction of Austin, could bankrupt the state as people in Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston begin to question the safety of their water supply, and begin to join the Austinites in a mass migration out of the State and high tech corporations reconsider their plans to continue to place more operations in this drought plagued state.

Perry Takes Job Raid, Ad Buy to the Big Apple

After a couple of high profile job-poaching trips to California and Illinois, Gov. Rick Perry is planning a new raid — this time on the Big Apple.
And he’s putting big money behind the state’s big mouth: $1 million for a TV advertising campaign promoting the Lone Star State's pro-business approach and strong economy, officials say.
Perry is scheduled to travel to New York on Sunday, June 16, and also plans a stop in Connecticut during the four-day trip, the governor’s office is announcing Monday. The message will be identical to the one he has taken to other states: Texas wants you — namely your jobs and investment capital.
"The governor’s job recruitment trips are doing exactly what we intended — getting the word out about the low taxes, smart regulations, fair legal system and skilled workforce that have made Texas a beacon for employers," said Perry spokeswoman Lucy Nashed. "We have a formula in Texas that has made us the best state in the nation to live, work, raise a family and run a business — and it’s a formula other states and our federal government would do well to replicate."
The 30-second ads will feature Texans from a variety of professions — from filmmakers to doctors — extolling the virtues of the state’s economy. They will run on CNBC, FOX News, CNN, ESPN and the Discovery Channel, according to the governor’s office. The spots are scheduled to run for a week, and begin airing Monday, aides said. 
The New York ad buy, which dwarfs the ones purchased earlier this year in California and Illinois, appears to be the most aggressive campaign yet by the state's economic development marketing team
The trip and the ad campaign is being paid for by TexasOne, a public-private partnership that markets Texas to other states and foreign countries. While the state pays for Perry’s security wherever he goes, no tax dollars are being used in connection with the marketing trip or ad campaign, officials said.
The Republican governor is scheduled to meet with business leaders in New York and Connecticut during the trip. His office is also directly targeting New York area business leaders with a dedicated section on the state's business marketing website that will tout the Texas model, according to literature from the governor’s office.
It’s no accident that Perry is spreading the news of Texas to New York. Like California, the Empire State gets relatively low grades for the way it treats businesses. According to the Tax Foundation, a Washington think tank, Texas is ranked ninth on the list of top business climates, while New York is ranked last, at 50th.
“Despite moderate corporate taxes, New York scores at the bottom this year by having the worst individual income tax, the sixth-worst unemployment insurance taxes and the sixth-worst property taxes,” the Tax Foundation said in its analysis. “The states in the bottom ten suffer from the same afflictions: complex, non-neutral taxes with comparatively high rates.”
While marketing a state’s economic climate to businesses in other states and countries isn’t a new concept, Perry has taken it to a new, confrontational level. When he went to California in February, Perry met with business leaders, talked up Texas to reporters and was featured in a radio ad criticizing the Golden State.
“Building a business is tough. But I hear building a business in California is next to impossible," Perry said in the ad. "See why our low taxes, sensible regulations and fair legal system are just the thing to get your business moving to Texas." 
The swaggering Texas governor ratcheted up the rhetoric in an ad directly appealing to Illinois’ business leaders, telling them their state's business climate was “designed for you to fail.”
“With rising taxes and government interference on the upswing, your situation is not unlike a burning building on the verge of collapse,” Perry says in the ad, which urges business leaders to take an “escape route” to Texas. The Illinois ad campaign, which included print and radio spots, cost about $80,000, according to published reports.
The recruiting trips have prompted some eye-rolling scorn in the states where he’s conducted them.
After Perry’s trip to California, Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown called the state’s $24,000 ad buy targeting the California  businesses “barely a fart” and said it would have no impact on the state’s economy. (When a maker of firearms gear, Shield Tactical, announced in May it was relocating operations from California to Texas, Perry attributed it directly to the recruiting trip and ad buy.)
During the governor’s trip to Illinois, meanwhile, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a Democrat, warned state businesses that drought-stricken Texas may not have enough water to meet the growing demand.
Emmanuel also took aim directly at Perry. He said the governor, an unsuccessful 2012 presidential candidate, might not be able to remember all the reasons why he was in Illinois — a reference to Perry’s famous “oops” moment when he couldn’t remember the third federal department he wanted to shut down, during a nationally televised debate.
But Perry has made the strong Texas economy his political calling card, and the economic development trips and smash-mouth ad campaigns have generated gobs of free publicity — not only for the state but for its longest-serving governor. 
What he ultimately decides to do next isn’t clear, but Perry hasn’t ruled out either a re-election race next year or another run for president in 2016.
“This kind of strategy in which you use free media has always been a hallmark of Rick Perry’s public profile,” said Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “It’s hard not to see this as an ongoing branding effort for the next stage of Rick Perry’s public career.”
Texas Tribune donors or members may be quoted or mentioned in our stories, or may be the subject of them. For a complete list of contributors, click here.

Today the Austin American-Statesman printed the following article on the front page:
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — A Central Texas group's proposed new long-term water management plan faces more state review about flow and lake levels amid the lingering drought.
The Lower Colorado River Authority on Monday announced it supports additional evaluation by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The plan first went to the TCEQ in March 2012.
The LCRA earlier received a letter from the TCEQ saying managers of the Highland Lakes may not be adequately accounting for the drought. Lakes Travis and Buchanan are reservoirs for Austin.
The Austin American-Statesman ( ) reports the TCEQ will spend four more months gathering information.
Critics say the LCRA has been too willing to release water to rice farmers. The LCRA board for the second straight year decided against a springtime release to rice farmers amid the drought.

Read more:

The significance of this is that this is the break in the newspapers loyal parroting of Perry's position on the drought: "The drought represents no threat to the State of Texas."  A year ago, around the time Neal Wilkins, then the chairman of the Texas Water Commission  was fired by Perry for doing his job.  His job, as a highly regarded national expert on land management, recommended "drastic cutbacks in our use of water and power".  This happened on June 29, 2012, when the combined water in our two reservoirs hit a predetermined "trigger point, which was the low of the 1951 drought.  This event was not even reported by the AA-S.  Instead, they published a steady stream of fabricated evidence that the drought was getting better. That overt support stopped early in the summer when conditions kept worsening as reported by the scientists at the NCRA, and reported by meteorologist Bob Rose on the States official web site.  After Wilkins dismissal, Perry started falsifying the published numbers on the water levels of the two reservoirs.  The falsification became painfully obvious by the fall when the posted numbers showed no decline, when inflows were reported as negligible. The reserves when when Wilkins was fired were almost exactly our average annual usage.  And a full year later with negligible inflows, the State website reports the combined lake levels as 789,000 acre feet; slightly lower than a year ago, but based on the well documented inflows, still preposterously high.  It is hard for me to stomach that this town teeming with PhD scientists, has had no one other than myself challenge these numbers.

First is an article by John Nielson-Gammon of the Houston Chronicle called "Climactic Abyss" published on Sept. 28, 2012.

Second are the editorials by the State's NCRA's (North Colorado River Authority) Meterologist Bob Rose, who somehow was overlooked in the purging of the knowledgeable former Commission. This former Commission was chaired by Neal Wilkins,PhD. He did his job on July 29, 2012 by stating that the combined reservoir total equaled the predetermined trigger point of the low of the 1951 drought, and recommended immediate major cutbacks in our use of water and electrical power.  Since such a move would threaten the city's rampant growth, Gov. Perry immediately fired Wilkins and a month later replaced the entire Commission with "yes men" from the finacial and real estate development sectors.  Somehow, Rose escaped the purge, perhaps because he only wrote his column 3 times a week.  But, as a scientist he was a strong ally of Wilkins, and has continued to post warnings without ever using buzz words like "running out of water", "running dry", or saying anything that sounds like a prediction.  Since Wilkins left, Rose has written a stream of weather reports about how various weather patterns are not putting water into our reservoirs.

On Bob Rose's report of May 13, 2013 he said the following:
"Drought becoming more intense as weather offers little relief.
Because of the extremely dry weather, very little water has flowed into the Highland Lakes so far this year and the prolonged drought gripping the region is growing stronger.
There have been a few violent storms in 2013, but they have not produced much water for lakes Travis and Buchanan, the lower Colorado River basin's water reservoirs.  The lakes are less than 40% full. Weather forecasts call for near-to-slightly below-normal rainfall across Texas through August; but, there is not expected to be enough rain to break the drought.
Because of the prolonged drought, the amount of water flowing into the lakes, called inflows, has been historically low over the past two years. Inflows in 2011 were the lowest in history, at about 10 percent of average, and inflows in 2012 were the fifth lowest in history, at about 32% of average."

Virtually every column rose has written since Wilkins left has had a similar tone:  the weather conditions are not very beneficial for our reservoirs; and , the pattern does not look like it will change.  He does not challenge Perry's falsified reservoirs numbers, but is very clear from his steady stream of negative comments based on real facts and meticulous research.  To a scientist it would be very clear that his statements are based on excellent research.  But this is easy to miss if you have no insight into the political situation.  A strict scientist would consider it an ethically inexcusable act not to challenge Perry's numbers, because the person who reads just one of his columns, would conclude that Rose doesn't make sense since it is natural to think HE is publishing the stats.  Without knowledge that Perry is fabricating these numbers, it is easy to dismiss Rose as a quack.  But he has performed a great service by staying on and telling as much of the truth as he can.  It must be agonizing for him to keep working under these conditions: to be associated with bold face lies.  We owe him a great debt to have been doing outstanding Meteorological work under these conditions.  Once I caught on to the game, Rose has supported every one of my suspicions that the situation is much more dire than the state's web site would lead us to believe.

Please, don't take my word for any of this, do your own research.  It will not take much time since I have outlined the path of deception for you.  Using the current data to calculate the amount of water that should be in each reservoir according to the published date, then go look at the two reservoirs and see if you think the data is accurate.

The following data was accurate when I originally wrote this article March 20, 2013.  I have left it here for the reader to compare  to the current data as posted on the LCRA website :
One of our two reservoirs, Lake Travis, has been observed by lake front property owners to be a “muddy trickle of the Colorado River”.  They have not made any noise about this because they are trying to sell their homes.  However, this is  solid proof that the statistics on the official NCRA (North Colorado River Authority) web site are fraudulent and intentionally deceptive.  Here is today's report:


0.817  million acre-feet
Current Level
817,380  Acre-Feet

Current levels as of May 23, 2013

Numbers are in acre-feet* and change daily.

0.779  million acre-feet
Current Level
779,339  Acre-Feet (39%)
Enter numbers in the boxes to change total volume – and learn below how this 

Since the amount  in Lake Travis is known to be zero, the entire  817,380 acre-feet must be in Buchanan.   How much water is really in Lake Buchanan is a guessing game.  So, let’s reverse engineer this problem.

TOTAL WATER USE: 881,359   2009             usage in acre feet; same source NCRA
                                        751,560    2010
                                        879,330     2011

The following calculations was based on the March data, so using the current falsified data the situation will look even worse.
Our usage is very consistent so it is reasonable to assume that this year 2013 will be very similar.  The rough average is 836,000 acre-feet/year.  Divide by 365 and we have 2,290 acre-feet per day.   The water needed to last us 30 days would be 68,700 acre-feet; two months 137,000 and so on.

Lake Buchanan’s capacity is 875,000 acre-feet.  The misinformation about the lake's supply for months has been that it is roughly 30% of capacity, or 262,500 acre-feet.
Let’s make a generous estimate that the state’s false data machine only doubled the actual amount, and that the Lake has 131,000 acre-feet.  That would be enough for 2 months as estimated above.  But given that they have been telling us Travis was also 30% full, when in reality it was zero, it is much more likely that the state numbers are at least inflated by a factor of 5 :the real amount being 52,500 acre-feet, which is not enough to last 30 days. Even a worse case scenario:  Buchanan could easily have only 3% of capacity; and, we will be dry in a week.

Another approach to estimating the current water supply and how long it will last at our usage rate, is to count the number of days since the last significant rainfall into the watersheds of the two reservoirs, and multiply this times the average usage rate of 2,290 acre feet/ day.  May 2012 was the last month meeting this criteria.  That is approximately 10 months = 300 days x usage rate of 2,290 acre feet per day = total of 897,000 which is almost exactly our annual usage.   The combined total of water on July 29, 2012, was the day we hit the predesignated trigger point established by record low of the 1951 drought.  On that day, as I have mentioned, the Head of the Texas Water Commission, Neal Wilkins PhD, whose specialty is wildlife habitat and who had a sterling record as the head of the Texas Water Commission and numerous other large tacks of land he had managed all over the United States, recommended drastic cut backs in our use of water and electrical power.  Previously state utilities had followed his recommendations without hesitation;but, he was immediately fired by Gov. Perry and his recommendations nullified.  Apparently, Perry felt that evidence of a water shortage would slow down Austin’s manic growth rate and tarnish his political reputation as a “job producer”.  Austin had been the number one destination for moving companies and rental trucks for 10 straight  years.  Austin’s growth rate was not sustainable even before the drought, but Perry, who is very delusional (he doesn’t “believe” in global warming, global climactic change, or anything vaguely related to ecology or conservation---it is unknown if he believes the world is flat or a sphere; but, his other anti-science positions put this question in at least a 50/50 split on the odds for “flat”). 

I became suspicious of the official web sight's data when month after month we had large outflows and no significant replenishment.
July 29, 2012 “the trigger point” day           810,000
September 2, 2012  government reported 898,809 acre-feet
March 28, 2013                                                  809,794
A smart 10 year old can easily deduce that 10 months of heavy usage and no rainfall, means that  the amount of water in the reservoirs should go down; and, if our average usage per year  is 836,000 acre feet/year, this would mean that the water in the reservoirs is almost gone.  Why the public has been buffaloed by these overtly fraudulent numbers is difficult to understand.  The best answer is that Marshall McCluhan in his 1960 book “The Medium Is the Message”, was correct when he predicted that television would make us mentally ill and we would  loose our ability to determine what is important in life, having our ability to do critical thinking weakened.  This scenario seem to be conisistent with his thesis which has been proven to be correct in every detail by neurophysiologists and psychiatrists as of 2003, and is well described in Peter Whybrow’s book “American Mania:” When More is Not Enough” 2005; recently reprinted.  It is disturbing that the amount of TV watched per capita per day was still rising as of 2011.

So, while it appeared to the casual observer that Texas was getting plenty of rain, virtually none fell south of Waco.  Thus , from Austin to Brownsville the situation is now acute.  Many towns in the valley have already run dry and a thousand more are on the edge.  I estimate that 9-10 million people will experience a crisis of having no water.  Even worse, the state does not have remotely enough water- carrying equipment to meet the challenge of this scale.  Translation: many people are going to die.  There is no escape, except for the wealthy who can fly out.  Escape by car is virtually impossible as the roads will rapidly choke on the traffic, and become parking lots for 100’s of miles.  We are also unprepared and lack the machinery to help these people stranded on the roads.  Most will run out of gas (economy at 5mph or less is maybe 5 miles per gallon); and, they will be unable to refuel due to the distance between towns and gas stations which have their weekly delivery sucked up in the first few hours after delivery).

In any case, we will run out of water soon ; and, it is prudent for every family to stockpile water, food, and gasoline (don’t forget the preservative) starting NOW.  If possible, try to store a month's worth.  Chaos will begin the day we run dry; and, we need to be prepared for at least a month of this before  any goods and services return. The military may be slow to show up and establish order.  Perry will certainly not call Obama and tell him Austin has a natural disaster.  Obama, clearly has no clue about the water crisis since he was here two weeks ago touting Austin as a model of success.  The law states that the President can intervene with Federal Troops even if the Governor doesn't ask for aid;  and, the chaos in Austin will certainly meet the criteria. However, it may take the White House several days to get a clear picture of what is really happening. especially since Obama will tend to question that such an event could be happening in a thriving city he recently saw with his own eyes.

There is also no historical precedent : no prosperous city of this size has suddenly plunged into anarchy in the history of our our species. This "it can't happen" and "they wouldn't let Austin die" attitude, prevents the people, even smart and well educated intellectuals (which this city has a wealth of---Austin probably has the highest PhD per capita of any city in the country---and most of them are scientists who power the wealth of high tech industries).

The military from nearby Fort Hood will arrive after the most critical period for theft, rioting and disruptive violence.  The local police will be totally overwhelmed just with the traffic situation alone.  Without signal lights, every major intersection will be a source of traffic clogging, fender benders, and worse as panicked people try to find food, water and gasoline.  Every sociopath in the county will seize this opportunity as an excuse to raise hell and not get caught.  One can only image what kinds of things such people will do.  So, every household needs to be ready to defend themselves. The majority are not, in spite of the national belief that everyone in Texas owns several guns.  This is true of native rural Texans, but not for the intellectually elite who moved here from all over the country and the world for these high tech jobs.

Another disastrous effect of the permanent power outages is that people who count on checks from Medicare, the State Employment Benefit Plan (79,000 people). or Permanent Disability Insurance Payments, will not receive a check for months after we run dry because all those programs are based in Austin.  Whether the government chooses to obtain and install huge generators or relocate to another major city with power, either process will take 6-12 months (my estimate).  Needless to say,  this will be catastrophic to people all across the state, not just the people in Travis County.

Below is additional evidence of the total failure of the government to properly manage this water crisis. By law, the Stage 3 water conservation calls for the following:

(A) This section prescribes stage three water use management regulations.
(B) This section applies during a time period ordered by the city manager in accordance with
Section 6-4-62 (Effective Dates of Conservation Stages). During stage three, stage two water use
management regulations in Section 6-4-65 (Water Conservation Stage Two Regulations) also apply.
(C) This section does not apply to a person who uses treated wastewater effluent or raw water.
(D) A person may not irrigate vegetation outdoors, except:
(1) with a hand-held hose or hand-held watering can from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m.
to 10:00 p.m. on a designated outdoor water use day; or
(2) at a commercial plant nursery with a hand-held hose, hand-held watering can, or drip
irrigation system.
(E) A person may not wash an automobile, truck, trailer, boat, airplane, or other mobile
equipment. This prohibition does not apply if the washing is necessary to alleviate an immediate threat
to public health, safety, or welfare, but a person may use a commercial car wash or commercial service
station for this purpose only between 12:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.
(F) This subsection prescribes requirements for foundation watering.
(1) A person may not water the ground around a foundation to prevent foundation cracking
except on a designated outdoor water use day from 12:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.
(2) The director may grant a variance to Paragraph (1) if the director determines that additional
watering is necessary to prevent foundation cracking. If the director grants a variance, a person may
water a foundation:
(a) during the time period prescribed by Paragraph (1); and
(b) on the second day after time period prescribed by Paragraph (1) from 12:00 a.m. to 10:00
a.m. using a soaker hose or drip system placed within 24 inches of the foundation that does not produce
a spray of water above the ground.
(G) A person may not operate an outdoor ornamental fountain or structure making similar use of
water, other than the aeration necessary to preserve habitat for aquatic species.
(H) A person may not add potable water to a swimming pool, wading pool, fountain, or pond.
(I) A person may not begin the installation of new landscape.
(J) A person may not wash a sidewalk, driveway, parking area, street, tennis court, patio, or other
paved area, except to alleviate an immediate health or safety hazard.
(K) A restaurant may not serve water to a customer except when requested by the customer.
Source: 1992 Code Section 4-2-64; Ord. 031023-10; Ord. 031211-11; Ord. 20070809-002; Ord.

The Texas Water Commission is not even recommending any of these restrictions, mush less enforcing them.  Thus, they are in violation of the state law.  30-50% of the households in my development water daily with automated sprinkler systems.  This is outrageous according to the above guidelines, especially since 25% of our total water usage is outdoor watering.  See section "D" above.

A dramatic illustration of the typical runoff from automated systems.
Much of the water doesn't even hit the grass but the sidewalks or the street,
and the owners know nothing of it since the timers are set in the middle of the

Other examples:  every car wash in town is operating full-bore in a gross violation of section "E"

Morris Creedon-McVean, D.O.
A gentleman and a scholar
Austin, Texas

March 28, 2013

May 23, 2013 

June 4, 2013 

Further updates will soon follow as I have the time to input new data.

I see multiple variations of this gross and thoughtless waste, every time I walk the Streets of my neighborhood at all hours of the night.  I do this because I am awakened by severe back pain after 2-3 hour of sleep.  I am permanently fully disabled due to the extensive degenerative arthritis of my spine.  When awakened with back pain the only thing that helps is walking, and though it is agonizing at first, it slowly gets better as I continue to walk.  A photographer of 45 years I quickly learned that carrying my state of the art camera which enables me to take night photos without a tripod, It is a delightful distraction from the pain.