Austin Texas Will
Run Dry Soon
March 20, 2013
Revised
March 28, 2013
Revised May 23, 2013
Revised June 4, 2013
Revised May 23, 2013
Revised June 4, 2013
Revised June 10, 2013
 |
| Morris Creedon-McVean 03-28-2013 |
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — A Central Texas group's proposed new long-term water management plan faces more state review about flow and lake levels amid the lingering drought.
The Lower Colorado River Authority on Monday announced it supports additional evaluation by the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The plan first went to the TCEQ in March 2012.
The LCRA earlier received a letter from the TCEQ saying managers of the Highland Lakes may not be adequately accounting for the drought. Lakes Travis and Buchanan are reservoirs for Austin.
The Austin American-Statesman (http://bit.ly/15B4Jdv ) reports the TCEQ will spend four more months gathering information.
Critics say the LCRA has been too willing to release water to rice farmers. The LCRA board for the second straight year decided against a springtime release to rice farmers amid the drought.
___
Read more: http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/texas/article/LCRA-water-management-plan-faces-more-review-4574936.php#ixzz2VJ6x3GPl
The following data was accurate when I originally wrote this article March 20, 2013. I have left it here for the reader to compare to the current data as posted on the LCRA website : http://www.lcra.org/water/supply/index.html.
One of our two reservoirs, Lake Travis, has been observed by lake front property owners to be a “muddy trickle of the Colorado River”. They have not made any noise about this because they are trying to sell their homes. However, this is solid proof that the statistics on the official NCRA (North Colorado River Authority) web site are fraudulent and intentionally deceptive. Here is today's report:
COMBINED VOLUME OF LAKES BUCHANAN AND
TRAVIS
|
||||||||||||||||||
0.817 million
acre-feet
Current Level
817,380 Acre-Feet Current levels as of May 23, 2013
Since the amount in Lake Travis is known to be zero, the entire 817,380 acre-feet must be in Buchanan. How much water is really in Lake Buchanan is a guessing game. So, let’s reverse engineer this problem. | ||||||||||||||||||
TOTAL WATER USE: 881,359 2009 usage in acre feet; same source
NCRA
751,560
2010
879,330 2011
The following calculations was based on the March data, so using the current falsified data the situation will look even worse.
Our usage is very consistent so it is reasonable to assume
that this year 2013 will be very similar.
The rough average is 836,000 acre-feet/year. Divide by 365 and we have 2,290 acre-feet per
day. The water needed to last us 30
days would be 68,700 acre-feet; two months 137,000 and so on.
Lake Buchanan’s capacity is 875,000 acre-feet. The misinformation about the lake's supply for
months has been that it is roughly 30% of capacity, or 262,500 acre-feet.
Let’s make a generous estimate that the state’s false data
machine only doubled the actual amount, and that the Lake has 131,000
acre-feet. That would be enough for 2
months as estimated above. But given
that they have been telling us Travis was also 30% full, when in reality it was
zero, it is much more likely that the state numbers are at least inflated by a
factor of 5 :the real amount being 52,500 acre-feet, which is not enough to last
30 days. Even a worse case
scenario: Buchanan could easily have
only 3% of capacity; and, we will be dry in a week.
Another
approach to estimating the current water supply and how long it will last at
our usage rate, is to count the number of days since the last significant
rainfall into the watersheds of the two reservoirs, and multiply this times the
average usage rate of 2,290 acre feet/ day.
May 2012 was the last month meeting this criteria. That is approximately 10 months = 300 days x
usage rate of 2,290 acre feet per day = total of 897,000 which is almost
exactly our annual usage. The combined
total of water on July 29, 2012, was the day we hit the predesignated
trigger point established by record low of the 1951 drought. On that day, as I have mentioned, the Head of the Texas Water Commission,
Neal Wilkins PhD, whose specialty is wildlife habitat and who had a sterling
record as the head of the Texas Water Commission and numerous other large tacks
of land he had managed all over the United States, recommended drastic cut
backs in our use of water and electrical power.
Previously state utilities had followed his recommendations without
hesitation;but, he was immediately fired by Gov. Perry and his recommendations
nullified. Apparently, Perry felt that
evidence of a water shortage would slow down Austin’s manic growth rate and
tarnish his political reputation as a “job producer”. Austin had been the number one destination
for moving companies and rental trucks for 10 straight years.
Austin’s growth rate was not sustainable even before the drought, but
Perry, who is very delusional (he doesn’t “believe” in global warming, global
climactic change, or anything vaguely related to ecology or conservation---it
is unknown if he believes the world is flat or a sphere; but, his other
anti-science positions put this question in at least a 50/50 split on the odds
for “flat”).
I became
suspicious of the official web sight's data when month after month we had large
outflows and no significant replenishment.
July 29,
2012 “the trigger point” day
810,000
September
2, 2012 government reported 898,809
acre-feet
March 28,
2013
809,794
A smart 10
year old can easily deduce that 10 months of heavy usage and no rainfall, means
that the amount of water in the
reservoirs should go down; and, if our average usage per year is 836,000 acre feet/year, this would mean that the
water in the reservoirs is almost gone.
Why the public has been buffaloed by these overtly fraudulent numbers is
difficult to understand. The best answer
is that Marshall McCluhan in his 1960 book “The Medium Is the Message”, was
correct when he predicted that television would make us mentally ill and we would loose our ability to determine what is
important in life, having our ability to do critical thinking weakened. This scenario seem to be
conisistent with his thesis which has been proven to be correct in every detail
by neurophysiologists and psychiatrists as of 2003, and is well described in
Peter Whybrow’s book “American Mania:” When More is Not Enough” 2005; recently
reprinted. It is disturbing that the
amount of TV watched per capita per day was still rising as of 2011.
So, while it appeared to the casual observer that Texas was getting plenty of rain, virtually none fell south
of Waco. Thus , from Austin to Brownsville
the situation is now acute. Many towns
in the valley have already run dry and a thousand more are on the edge. I estimate that 9-10 million people will
experience a crisis of having no water.
Even worse, the state does not have remotely enough water- carrying
equipment to meet the challenge of this scale.
Translation: many people are going to die. There is no escape, except for the wealthy
who can fly out. Escape by car is
virtually impossible as the roads will rapidly choke on the traffic, and become
parking lots for 100’s of miles. We are
also unprepared and lack the machinery to help these people stranded on the
roads. Most will run out of gas (economy
at 5mph or less is maybe 5 miles per gallon); and, they will be unable to refuel
due to the distance between towns and gas stations which have their weekly
delivery sucked up in the first few hours after delivery).
In any case, we will run out of water soon ; and, it is
prudent for every family to stockpile water, food, and gasoline (don’t forget
the preservative) starting NOW. If
possible, try to store a month's worth. Chaos will begin the day we run dry; and, we need to be prepared for
at least a month of this before any
goods and services return. The military may be slow to show up and establish order. Perry will certainly not call Obama and tell him Austin has a natural disaster. Obama, clearly has no clue about the water crisis since he was here two weeks ago touting Austin as a model of success. The law states that the President can intervene with Federal Troops even if the Governor doesn't ask for aid; and, the chaos in Austin will certainly meet the criteria. However, it may take the White House several days to get a clear picture of what is really happening. especially since Obama will tend to question that such an event could be happening in a thriving city he recently saw with his own eyes.
There is also no historical precedent : no prosperous city of this size has suddenly plunged into anarchy in the history of our our species. This "it can't happen" and "they wouldn't let Austin die" attitude, prevents the people, even smart and well educated intellectuals (which this city has a wealth of---Austin probably has the highest PhD per capita of any city in the country---and most of them are scientists who power the wealth of high tech industries).
The military from nearby Fort Hood will arrive after the most critical period for theft, rioting and disruptive violence. The local police will be totally overwhelmed just with the traffic situation alone. Without signal lights, every major intersection will be a source of traffic clogging, fender benders, and worse as panicked people try to find food, water and gasoline. Every sociopath in the county will seize this opportunity as an excuse to raise hell and not get caught. One can only image what kinds of things such people will do. So, every household needs to be ready to defend themselves. The majority are not, in spite of the national belief that everyone in Texas owns several guns. This is true of native rural Texans, but not for the intellectually elite who moved here from all over the country and the world for these high tech jobs.
Below is additional evidence of the total failure of the government to properly manage this water crisis. By law, the Stage 3 water conservation calls for the following:
There is also no historical precedent : no prosperous city of this size has suddenly plunged into anarchy in the history of our our species. This "it can't happen" and "they wouldn't let Austin die" attitude, prevents the people, even smart and well educated intellectuals (which this city has a wealth of---Austin probably has the highest PhD per capita of any city in the country---and most of them are scientists who power the wealth of high tech industries).
The military from nearby Fort Hood will arrive after the most critical period for theft, rioting and disruptive violence. The local police will be totally overwhelmed just with the traffic situation alone. Without signal lights, every major intersection will be a source of traffic clogging, fender benders, and worse as panicked people try to find food, water and gasoline. Every sociopath in the county will seize this opportunity as an excuse to raise hell and not get caught. One can only image what kinds of things such people will do. So, every household needs to be ready to defend themselves. The majority are not, in spite of the national belief that everyone in Texas owns several guns. This is true of native rural Texans, but not for the intellectually elite who moved here from all over the country and the world for these high tech jobs.
Another disastrous effect of the permanent power outages is that people who count on checks from Medicare, the State Employment Benefit Plan (79,000 people). or Permanent Disability Insurance Payments, will not receive a check for months after we run dry because all those programs are based in Austin. Whether the government chooses to obtain and install huge generators or relocate to another major city with power, either process will take 6-12 months (my estimate). Needless to say, this will be catastrophic to people all across the state, not just the people in Travis County.
Below is additional evidence of the total failure of the government to properly manage this water crisis. By law, the Stage 3 water conservation calls for the following:
§ 6-4-66 WATER CONSERVATION STAGE THREE REGULATIONS.
(A) This section prescribes stage three water use management regulations.
(B) This section applies during a time period ordered by the city manager in accordance with
Section 6-4-62 (Effective Dates of Conservation Stages). During stage three, stage two water use
management regulations in Section 6-4-65 (Water Conservation Stage Two Regulations) also apply.
(C) This section does not apply to a person who uses treated wastewater effluent or raw water.
(D) A person may not irrigate vegetation outdoors, except:
(1) with a hand-held hose or hand-held watering can from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m.
to 10:00 p.m. on a designated outdoor water use day; or
(2) at a commercial plant nursery with a hand-held hose, hand-held watering can, or drip
irrigation system.
(E) A person may not wash an automobile, truck, trailer, boat, airplane, or other mobile
equipment. This prohibition does not apply if the washing is necessary to alleviate an immediate threat
to public health, safety, or welfare, but a person may use a commercial car wash or commercial service
station for this purpose only between 12:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m.
(F) This subsection prescribes requirements for foundation watering.
(1) A person may not water the ground around a foundation to prevent foundation cracking
except on a designated outdoor water use day from 12:00 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.
(2) The director may grant a variance to Paragraph (1) if the director determines that additional
watering is necessary to prevent foundation cracking. If the director grants a variance, a person may
water a foundation:
(a) during the time period prescribed by Paragraph (1); and
(b) on the second day after time period prescribed by Paragraph (1) from 12:00 a.m. to 10:00
a.m. using a soaker hose or drip system placed within 24 inches of the foundation that does not produce
a spray of water above the ground.
(G) A person may not operate an outdoor ornamental fountain or structure making similar use of
water, other than the aeration necessary to preserve habitat for aquatic species.
(H) A person may not add potable water to a swimming pool, wading pool, fountain, or pond.
(I) A person may not begin the installation of new landscape.
(J) A person may not wash a sidewalk, driveway, parking area, street, tennis court, patio, or other
paved area, except to alleviate an immediate health or safety hazard.
(K) A restaurant may not serve water to a customer except when requested by the customer.
Source: 1992 Code Section 4-2-64; Ord. 031023-10; Ord. 031211-11; Ord. 20070809-002; Ord.
20070927-006.
The Texas Water Commission is not even recommending any of these restrictions, mush less enforcing them. Thus, they are in violation of the state law. 30-50% of the households in my development water daily with automated sprinkler systems. This is outrageous according to the above guidelines, especially since 25% of our total water usage is outdoor watering. See section "D" above.
Other examples: every car wash in town is operating full-bore in a gross violation of section "E"
above.
 |
| A dramatic illustration of the typical runoff from automated systems. Much of the water doesn't even hit the grass but the sidewalks or the street, and the owners know nothing of it since the timers are set in the middle of the night. |
Other examples: every car wash in town is operating full-bore in a gross violation of section "E"
above.
Morris Creedon-McVean, D.O.
A gentleman and a scholar
A gentleman and a scholar
Austin, Texas
March 28, 2013
May 23, 2013
June 4, 2013
Further updates will soon follow as I have the time to input new data.
May 23, 2013
June 4, 2013
Further updates will soon follow as I have the time to input new data.
 |
| I see multiple variations of this gross and thoughtless waste, every time I walk the Streets of my neighborhood at all hours of the night. I do this because I am awakened by severe back pain after 2-3 hour of sleep. I am permanently fully disabled due to the extensive degenerative arthritis of my spine. When awakened with back pain the only thing that helps is walking, and though it is agonizing at first, it slowly gets better as I continue to walk. A photographer of 45 years I quickly learned that carrying my state of the art camera which enables me to take night photos without a tripod, It is a delightful distraction from the pain. |
